CAPACITY HOST POPULATION OF A TERRITORY BASED ON ITS NATURAL RESOURCES IN A SCENARIO OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT.Summary: When a multidisciplinary team conducts its work in developing a Plan of Land Management, comes to a point where it is compelled to do an exercise of 'Foresight', understood this term in relation to the approach of future scenarios to achieve development by the territory to the Plan. It is precisely at this stage 'foresight' where there is a need for models and methodologies that facilitate the glider treatment of the vast number of variables to be considered in the approach of those future scenarios. Models that are considering the hypothesis that the plane heading deems appropriate, be able to reproduce results consistent and reliable, useful for decision-making on planning design. With this idea arose this Doctoral Thesis, which develops a model precisely outlook for the variable 'Population', which takes into account the interrelationship necessarily has to exist between the number of people who settle in a territory and natural resources in the same: 'Capacity host population of a territory based on its natural resources in a scenario of sustainable development'. It begins with an introduction that essentially addresses the need for this type of model in the field of planning and land use study, and then take a look at the state of affairs, listing and briefly describing various methodologies and models that deal the science of regional planning and its different forms of address. The emphasis in this first part of the thesis on the development of two basic concepts of the same: Capacity Reception and Sustainable Development. He then develops a conceptual model, whose key components are as follows:? Zoning of the study area: Focus on basic studies, in the field of Spatial planning, make up the so-called diagnostic phase is the geographic location of each of the units homogenous territory, from the point of view productive its natural resources, ultimately the zoning of the area under study. ? Definition Model Exploitation Agroforestry: Once each of the homogeneous areas of the territory is to define the types of sustainable exploitation of natural resources that characterize these areas. In this model is simplified this exploitation of natural resources subsectors that are regularly assigned to the Primary Sector of the economy: subsector Agricultural subsector Livestock and Forestry subsector, identifying productive capacity and ability to absorb workforce each them. ? Definition of socio-economic assumptions for the horizon: Once known the employment generation capacity of the Primary Sector, raised the assumptions of scenario development that aims to lead the study area, defining essentially three variables: either rate unemployment: In terms of percentage of unemployment lapoblación active. Or sectoral structure of the workforce: In terms of percentage of the workforce that deals in each of the three key sectors of the economy: Primary (Agrícola-Ganadero-Forestal) Secondary (Industry and Construction) and Tertiary (Services ). Or Activity rate: In terms of percentage of the total population that is considered economically active. ? Estimates of the total population: Based on the capacity of employment generated by the Primary sector, initially calculated, and applying the assumptions set out above are determined by successive calculations, the total value of the workforce in the Primary sector, the total active population Population and Total. In its simplest form, the model proposed, using basic information on natural resources and socio-economic characteristics of a territory, and pose the hypothesis that the development planner considers reasonable for a esc 8 enario f 47f uturo, can be determined capacity population of that territory for the scenario defined. Finally, this Doctoral Thesis proceeded to apply this model to a given area and then discuss the results and analyzing the goodness of the model. The implementation of the Model has been made for the Valle de San Andres, an area of about 830 km2, near the town of San Salvador, El Salvador (Central America).
