REGIONAL WEATHER

Author: FERNANDEZ FERNANDEZ JESUS.
Year: 2004.
University: PAÍS VASCO [www.ehu.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE CIENCIA Y TECNOLOGIA.
Place of preparation: FACULTAD DE CIENCIA Y TECNOLOGIA.

Summary: We have adapted to the Cantabrian Cornice various techniques of regional outreach of the large-scale climate information (downscaling) for application in the forecasting of rainfall. The primary objective is to compare the results obtained using expensive regional dynamics modeling techniques using statistical techniques and simple. It has been used as an example of a statistical methodology usual linear statistical model based on Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). It has been proven the ability of a non-linear model based on the finding of similar large-scale atmospheric fields. It also proposes an amendment to methodological latter method results in an improvement in the predictive capability through the use of an alternative space search. For regionalization dynamic has adapted the model of mesoscale MM5 for use in weather timescales. Once modified, a study has been made of sensitivity of the model results with the use of different metrizaciones for piles, the layer of mixture and planetary radiation. Des sensitivity study shows that there is a set of parametrizations optimal in the sense lead to better results in all areas, seasons, time scales and rates of expertise considered. Chosen parametrizations package that best represents the winter precipitation to make a model of integration for the period 1960 to 1989 for which estimates are available statistics in the first part of the thesis. The dynamic estimation is the most effective in terms of correlation with the observed rainfall. The similar method, however, leads to a series of precipitation variance more similar to that observed with the rest of proposed methods. The projection regional precipitation through CEC there is a systematic tendency to normalize the distribution of probability. Finally, it has analyzed the transport of moisture on the Cantabrian Cornice based on the results of high-resolution model MM5 and verified the assumption of causation between pairs patterns CEC used in the statistical models.

Author: MORENO MEDINA CLAUDIO JESÚS.
Year: 2004.
University: LAS PALMAS DE GRAN CANARIA [www.ulpgc.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE GEOGRAFÍA E HISTORIA.
Place of preparation: FACULTAD DE GEOGRAFÍA E HISTORIA.

Summary: The research work that we in this Doctoral Thesis and development under the title of Articulation territorial spaces island: the channels of communication ground in the Canaries, siglos XVI - XIX, analyzes the network of roads in the horizon of its original management since the origins of the settlement until the late nineteenth century. The development of this thesis is performed through seven chapters in the core are being sorted research results. The first one explains the reason for choosing this subject for research, the background and current status of work related to this matter, the sources used, their problems and the methodology used, and finally listed the goals looking towards this research work. The second chapter deals with the relationship between the communications network and the space artícula, in our case, the island territories. In the third chapter brings us closer to the regional average canary stressing the importance of the geographical environment on the influence and articulation of terrestrial communications networks. With the fourth chapter deals with the study of tracks on a regional or archipelago in the nineteenth century, when the terrestrial communication networks had already been consolidated. In the fifth chapter deals with the study of terrestrial communication channels island-wide, particularly through the analysis of the process of building the network of roads from the fifteenth to the nineteenth century on the islands of Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria and El Hierro. In the sixth chapter increase the scale of analysis to the local level, the municipality of Santa María de Gran Canaria Guide. This is salvage the value of the component path, which previously was a functional element of the joint planning. Finally, chapter of the findings, provides a summary of the main findings of the investigation.

Author: FERNANDEZ DE ARROYABE HERNAEZ PABLO.
Year: 2005.
University: BARCELONA [www.ub.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE GEOGRAFÍA E HISTORIA.
Place of preparation: UNIVERSITAT DE BARCELONA (UB).

Summary: The basic assumption of this work is to demonstrate the persistent nature dela precipitation in the form of rain in the Autonomous Basque Country (Basque Country) by employing different models markovianos of describing the idea of persistence through probabililades trigger conditioned. Based on the daily data recorded between 1965 and 1994 in 41 weather stations located in the study area is, first, a brief descriptive portrait of the context of the Basque Country itself rainfall from different basic indicators tipificándose regimes pluvimétricos characteristic of territory analyzed. A second objective framework focuses on the analysis of rainfall structures through the use of the rainy streak as the basic unit of work three different thresholds court (1, 5 and 10 mm / day). It analyzes the length and absolute frequency of bouts registered, and the eigenvalues of streak those of average or greater longevity. Once defined structures rainfall for each threshold mentioned are representandas cartographically. The most relevant point of the investigation is in the process devoted to the analysis of empirical and theoretical probability of the bouts. The empirical probability of each bout are calculated on an individual and grouped by categories representing their values in a map of probability of occurrence of rain through the use of techniques geosestadísticas. Through analysis of the internal structure of the rainy squalls are defined curves empirical persistence of each station for each threshold court. The odds are estimated from theoretical models markovianos of different orders (1-5) verified the existence of significant statistical adjustments between the observed and expected frequencies for the phenomena studied. Finally, it validates the goodness of the models markovinos as expressions statistics persistent nature of the precipitation in the form of rain in the Basque Country. At Lake of the work of the works are continuing the cartographic representations of the weather variables analyzed using techniques specific to geographic information systems (GIS) and various geostatistical methods.

Author: FRIAS DOMINGUEZ Ma. DOLORES.
Year: 2005.
University: SALAMANCA [www.usal.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS.
Place of preparation: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS.

Summary: The main objective of this thesis is to explore the possibility of developing a system of operational prediction of maximum and minimum temperature on the Iberian Peninsula based on the results from the DEMETER project. The study focuses on assessing the predictability monthly / seasonal maximum and minimum temperature on the Iberian Peninsula by combining forecasting systems for multi sets and statistical techniques regionalization or downscaling. Such predictability is quantified by applying models of regionalization means hindcast considering the pressure at sea level on the area of the North Atlantic as a predictor. The comparison of observations with the estimates of the average monthly temperature maximum and minimum regionalization using these techniques provides a measure of predictability in the region. The results are evaluated so deterministic mainly in terms of correlation and fraction of variance. Other statistical probability, as Brier skill score or ranked probability skill score, are also applied to the values estimated from the regionalization methods to analyze information from a probabilistic. This allows us to assess the quality of the predictions and compare the superiority of the system of multi prediction by joint front to consider models individually. It also explicitly analyze the benefits of using the models of regionalization by comparing the estimated values of maximum and minimum temperature respect to the values of these variables resulting from the direct output of the general circulation models.

Author: MOLLA CANTAVELLA BELEN.
Year: 2006.
University: JAUME I DE CASTELLON [www.uji.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS HUMANAS Y SOCIALES.
Place of preparation: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS HUMANAS Y SOCIALES.

Summary: The dendrocronología is virtually the only scientific discipline, apart from the "cores" polar and methods isotópicos-radiactivos, which can provide a long historical dimension to research on past climates. A rigorous discipline which is currently accredited by the significant methodological developments and interactive software have been obtained in the treatment of the "cores" tree. The proper reading of the same, that is the codification of climatic and environmental thickness ring shows, can now provide the best climate reconstruction of the past. This represents an excellent contribution to current scientific challenge inherent in the scenario of global climate change. So, after obtaining samples tree sensitive to climatic conditions specific to the sampling site, has been implementing various interactive software thus obtaining the real values thick ring of each of the copies obtained . However, in order to be able to compare samples from different places, have turned these securities in the indexes through filters and management functions for the elimination of smoothing fluctuations. It has been able to weather the decline, leading to the reconstruction of the variables in precipitation and temperature in the Mediterranean side of the Iberian over the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.