ECONOMIC TIME SERIES

Author: MIRANDA ESPINOSA ALEXANDRA.
Year: 2004.
University: PAÍS VASCO [www.ehu.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES.
Place of preparation: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES.

Summary: The thesis is divided into four chapters. The first chapter reviews the major theories explaining the causes and consequences of migration. In the second chapter addresses these same causes and consequences frameworks characterized by open economies and overall balance. In the third chapter, we discuss the causes of migration from the perspective of the individual. The fourth chapter shows the difficulties inherent in any contrasting scenarios that require the use of series "migration" and shows also the contrast of the assumption that immigration to Spain has a negative effect on unemployment. As main results, it should be noted that at the theoretical level is that international differences in average income or the price of a factor of production is not necessary nor sufficient for the initiation of a process of migration, and that the opening of economies to international trade can generate migration, at least for the dynamics of transition. At the same time, the contrast of different hypothesis is that there are no long-term relationships between immigration and unemployment in Spain. Finally, it is proposed to deepen the concepts of poverty in the analysis of the migratory phenomena.

Author: GARCÍA HIERNAUX ALFREDO.
Year: 2004.
University: COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID [www.ucm.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD CC. ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES.
Place of preparation: FTAD.CC. ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES.

Summary: It proposes a methodology for specifying time series by methods including subspace. I determine the order of integration and estimating both rank as the matrix cointegration. II determine the order of the process, III Specify rates observabilidad or kronecker, E. IV incorporate additional restrictions. This will bring new algorithms and decision criteria along with other usual in the literatura.El procedure is divided into several fases.Recorrer more or less phases will involve increasing parsimony. Thus, the analysis can search according to their objective balance between proper effort, parsimony and likelihood of error.

Author: CUESTAS OLIVARES JUAN CARLOS.
Year: 2004.
University: JAUME I DE CASTELLON [www.uji.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS JURIDICAS Y ECONOMICAS.
Place of preparation: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS JURIDICAS Y ECONOMICAS.

Summary: This dissertation is aimed at studying the evolution of the real exchange rate in the so-called "Third Mediterranean Countries" that maintain trade and cooperation agreements with the European Union. For this purpose, using contrasts on the order of integration of the variables in order to study the integration of the real effective exchange rate of the currencies of these countries with regard to the European Union, so if it is stationary, is fulfilled the purchasing power parity (PPP). The results indicate that the PPP is fulfilled in five of the countries surveyed. It also contrasts the performance of the PPP through technique of Johansen cointegration. However, the results indicate the failure of the same. Given that exports of these countries are heavily dependent on commodities, he examines whether the actual rate depends on the long-term disruption in the terms of trade of these products, obtaining results favorable to four of them. Finally, it looks through the technique of Bierens the possibility that the variables of the nominal exchange rate and price differential variables are stationary around a trend deterministic nonlinear and share this trend, which would mean compliance with the PPP, obtaining favorable results for all countries surveyed.

Author: Pelet Redón Carmen.
Year: 2004.
University: ZARAGOZA [www.unizar.es].
Place of defense: Facultad de Ciencias económicas.
Place of preparation: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas.

Summary: The overall objective of the report is to analyze the determinants of wage in the Spanish economy during the period 1980-2000. The analysis has been raised from a dual perspective macroeconomic and microeconomic. First, it is estimated an equation of wages by time series models, analyzing the existence of a relationship of long-term balance between wages and variables such as prices, unemployment and productivity, and the relationship between short-term these variables and speed adjustment to the long-term balance by applying the method of error correction mechanism. Secondly, he examines the flexibility of wage regard to unemployment in local labor markets, verifying the existence of a curve wages for the Spanish economy over the period 1994-96. In addition, he examines whether there is evidence of a relationship type Phillips curve using the functional form of the curve wages disaggregated data. These tests are conducted by the technical panel data with data from the Household Panel Survey of the European Union by region NUT1. Thirdly, we analyze the characteristics of the institutional framework of the Spanish labor market over the past few decades, focusing first on the study of existing collective bargaining system and its evolution during this period; second, the policy of coordination developed since its inception until now, and third in the three major labor reforms carried out during the decades eighties and nineties, whose ultimate goal was to achieve greater flexibility in the Spanish labor market, reduce the NAIRU and enhance the response of wages conditions in the labor market. All of this in order to explain the influence that these aspects of the job market, to which we have referred, we have had on the evolution of wages and their linkage with the economic determinants during the period under review. Finally, it conducts a brief comparative analysis for a group of European countries regarding their collective bargaining agreement and its policies and regulation, which allows for the similarities and differences with the Spanish case. The results suggest that changes in nominal wages is explained by the long-term price trends, showing a slightly inflationary behavior during the period studied, with significant short-term nominal inertia. Both behaviors can be explained taking into account the characteristics of the collective bargaining system in force in Spain, with a complex structure and the possibility of signing collective agreements at various levels, with a predominance of the provincial sector. This dominance of the negotiation sector at the provincial level determines a degree of centralization intermediate it difficult to practice a moderate wage offers and worst performers in terms of inflation and unemployment, as pointed out in various theoretical models and empirical. A second conclusion of the study is that real wages have a cointegration relationship with productivity, with an elasticity of less than unity, reflecting some moderation in real wages. This result is a reflection of the policy of coordination developed during whose main objective has been to establish increases in real wages in line with increases in productivity, always looking for wage moderation. As third conclusion include the confirmation of zero competitive effect at the aggregate level, with a simultaneous increase in unemployment and nominal and real wage. This lack of flexibility of wages toward unemployment at the macro level would be explained by the existing rigidities in the labor market, which in turn explains the high levels of NAIRU during the period and the difficulty to reduce it, despite attempts by easing of the three grand 8 is refor 6d3 more labor applied in 1984, 1994 and 1997. These reforms have developed significant steps in virtually all basic areas of the labor market. However, reinforcing the idea put forward by some authors, the findings of our investigation indicate the need to continue acting in the line taken in these reforms. Finally, the micro-economic analysis provides evidence on the existence of a curve wages for the Spanish economy, with a wage elasticity with respect to unemployment and significant negative, reflecting the flexibility of wages compared to the conditions in the labor market as measured by the rate unemployment in local markets. Moreover, analysis of the existence of a relationship type Phillips curve, following the methodology of microeconomic curve wages, shows the existence of a considerable inertia nominal wages in the error correction mechanism, which coincides with the result obtained macroeconomic applying the methodology.

Author: SEBESTYÉN SZABOLCS.
Year: 2005.
University: ALICANTE [www.ua.es].
Place of defense: F. CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES.
Place of preparation: UNIVERSIDAD DE ALICANTE.

Summary: The thesis discusses the formation of prices in the markets for interest rates in the euro area, and discusses the effects of various types of public information about them. Particularly, studying three sources of public information: (i) macroeconomic announcements, (ii) announcements of monetary policy and (iii) communication tools of the European Central Bank. Moreover, not only impacts on the average of interest but also impacts on the volatility. The analysis begins with daily data, then focuses on high-frequency data, and gives a detailed analysis on the statistical properties of intra interest rates. Moreover, uses two econometric models to study the effects of ads. One is more general and analyzes only the immediate effects, while the other gives a more general specification of series.Los results and contributions of the thesis is as follows. First, it gives a detailed analysis on interest rates in the euro area. He has found that they have their own characteristics in the volatility during the day, and the impact of the ads are visibles.Segundo both analysis using daily data such as using high-frequency data imply any clear evidence of the connection between interest rates in the euro zone and the economic and financial fundamentals. More specifically, there are three very important results with regard to this. The first is that the most important announcements coming from the United States. Both the number of significant variables and their effects are greatest for variables USA As for the eurozone. In addition, national ads in the euro area appear to be more relevant than the aggregate data. And thirdly, the variables are more important than polls variables económicas.Tercero, the ECB's monetary policy affects the average eat much of the variance in interest rates, though the latter can only be detected in intra frequencies. This implies that monetary policy surprises generated movements of interest rates in the sample indicating that there was some uncertainty about the moments of monetary decisions. The thesis has shown that this can be related to the period before November 2001, when the ECB had meetings every two weeks, hampering predictions of when decisions. But when the ECB changed to monthly meetings, could improve its predictibilidad.Cuarto, the assumption that the central banks of communication is important is confirmed. "Introductory Statements" seemed the most important tool that generates enough ECB volatility after the announcement. In addition, "Introductory Statements" which indicate increases in interest rates in the future generate further volatilidad.Quinto consistent with the results found in the literature, the average adjustment is very fast, while the adjustment in the volatility is much slower

Author: GAMBETTI LUCA.
Year: 2005.
University: POMPEU FABRA [www.upf.edu].
Place of defense: UNIVERSITAT POMPEU FABRA.
Place of preparation: UNIVERSITAT POMPEU FABRA.

Author: SALÓ MAYOLAS ALBERT.
Year: 2005.
University: GIRONA [www.udg.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE CIÉNCIES ECONÓMIQUES I EMPRESARIALS.
Place of preparation: FAC. DE CIENCIES ECONOMIQUES I EMPRESARIALS (UDG).

Author: González Martínez Ma. Isabel.
Year: 2006.
University: MURCIA [www.um.es].
Place of defense: Facultad de Economía y Empresa.
Place of preparation: Facultad de Economía y Empresa (Universidad de Murcia).

Summary: The aim of the thesis is to propose new tools to examine convergence between economic variables. These procedures are applied contrast to the study of convergence in per capita income and interest rates among countries that constitute the EMU. In this thesis we show that the empirical applications on convergence with time series deficiencies in terms of econometric techniques employed for the analysis of convergence. Normally applied contrasts root uniform or linear cointegration. The key drawback of this method is that the results of the contrasts that are commonly used depend on how many breaks they believe, an incorrect specification of breaks that affect the series can lead to wrong conclusions about the stochastic component of the . The problem is important because usually, in practice, we do not know in advance whether there are ruptures or when they occur. Another drawback of this method is that the parks are based on linear models assumed that the speed of adjustment to balance its long term consistent over time. However, the neoclassical growth model, traditionally used as a theoretical framework to study convergence in incomes, believes that the speed of convergence varies along the transition to steady state. Finally, another limitation of the contrasts that are normally applied which is not considered the possibility of gradual changes in the process, but merely allow instant breakthroughs. Such a course might be too restrictive on an analysis of convergence between economic variables. In this thesis proposing new methods to check convergence with time series data to resolve the shortcomings identified in the preceding paragraphs. In chapter 2, we focused on the problems experienced by the contrasts of single root when the number of breaks that affect the process, and their location is unknown. We propose a new procedure that allows the contrasting scenarios root unitary without specifying in advance the number of ruptures which contains the process. Using Monte Carlo simulations show that our procedure contrast has a potentially very close to the root of the contrasts of unitary correctly specifying the number of ruptures which contains the process, and far exceeds that of the contrasts they see as a wrong number ruptures. In chapter 3, we boarded the limitation presented the contrasts in assuming that the speed of convergence is constant over time. In this chapter, we propose to apply contrasts root unitary nonlinear contrast to the hypothesis of convergence, allowing the speed of convergence varies along the transition to steady state. In Chapters 2 and 3 perform an empirical application where we use the contrasts proposed in each chapter to discuss convergence in per capita income between countries in the EMU. In chapter 4, we study the shortcomings which have contrasted root unitary commonly used in the analysis of convergence where there is a gradual change in the convergence process. Using Monte Carlo simulations show that these contrasts major power problems. In this chapter, we propose to apply contrasts root unitary allowing a gradual shift to analyze convergence. Our simulations show that the advantage of these contrasts regard to the more traditional is that not only have good power to process with a gradual change, but also to processes without change, and to those that contain an instant change. This last chapter ends with an implementation of thumb, in which we look at the process of convergence in nominal interest rates that are d 8 esarroll 3ba or among countries in the EMU. Finally, we would note that the usefulness of methodological proposals made in this thesis is not restricted to the analysis of real and nominal convergence, but are also applicable to other economic contexts.