MACROECONOMIC THEORY

Author: BRAJÍN RODRÍGUEZ SONIA M..
Year: 2004.
University: COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID.
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE CC.EE Y EE.
Place of preparation: FACULTAD DE CC.EE Y EE..

Summary: This thesis includes a set of analysis, inflation, interest rates and behavior of the central banks of several countries. This is empirical analysis of exploration that, in many cases, generate very different from those obtained in the literature or pose. The overall objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the phenomenon of inflation and especially the properties of statistical equilibrium in the long run that operanlas variablesanalizadas. First seeks to answer the question of what is the order of integration in the inflation rate (p). It performed univariate analysis of the inflation rates of the United Kingdom (UK), the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), Switzerland, Japan and France. The results show that in all countries p-1 (1), despite the fact that many authors assume or believe finding that p-1 (0). Secondly there is the question of whether there are countries which have a common rate of inflation, or whether, by contrast, inflation is a purely national phenomenon. To answer this question we sought cointegration relationship between the inflation rates of the countries listed above. It is found that the UK, Switzerland and Japan have a common rate of inflation but in Germany and France inflation appears to be a purely national phenomenon. Univariate analysis was also conducted in interest rates in the interbank market to a day (r) of the UK, Germany, Switzerland and Japan, as it was considered that r is one of the main determinants of p, and this variable is virtually set by the central banks. It is found that no country r-1 (0). Specifically, it was found that in the UK and Japan r-1 (1) Yen Germany and Switzerland r-1 (2). It also seems interesting relationship between py r. If one of the objectives of the central banks is to control p, although not strict control, and if r have an adverse effect on long-term p, as is commonly believed, it should be noted that w have a positive impact on the r long-term effect on the p r more than one way to change the real interest rate. The results seem to indicate that central banks behave in this way in all countries surveyed, although the response of central banks ap differs between countries, in both size and speed. Analysis indicates that the function of reaction of the central banks of the countries surveyed are more variable than not stationary p, namely that the central banks of these countries have more goals than the control P.

Author: PICA GIOVANNI.
Year: 2004.
University: POMPEU FABRA.
Place of defense: DEPARTEMENTO DE ECONOMÍA Y EMPRESA.
Place of preparation: UNIVERSIDAD POMPEU FABRA.

Summary: The thesis consists of three articulas independent research. The first chapter of this thesis examines the increasing integration of capital markets affecting incentives to regulate the labor market. Also explores the effects on income distribution, analyzing the political balance. We consider three different institutional frameworks: Autarky, Union Económíca and political union. In Autarky capital can not move from one country to another and each country can implement their preferred level of regulacíón labor market. In "Economic Union" there is a single capital market for both countries, while the decísiones policies remain decentralized. In "political union" is not only one single capital market, but also the level of regulation of the labor market provides centralized in the area. The candidate uses an overlapping generations model, in which agents work in the first period of their vída and withdrew in the second. When young players earn income from work when elderly, receive income from capítal accumulated. The regulation of the labor market is modeling as fixing the minimum wage, the level of which is decided through a political process in which both workers (young) and the capitalists (the elderly) can exert lobbying activities. The effectiveness of lobbying depends on the political power of each group is assumed that exogenous. The capitalists are always against the regulation of the labor market because it causes a lowering of the interest rate. The workers are faced with a trade-. On the one hand, the supporters because wage increases. On the other hand, anticipate that a high wage will affect them negatively in the second period of their lives. The chapter examines how this trade-otT is affected by the processes of political and economic integration and demonstrates that, in this context, globalization-defined as an increase in the mobility of capital reduces the incentive for workers to regulate the market labor. Subsequently, the three are ranked institutional frameworks using the point of view of young people. It demonstrates that, under the assumptions of symmetry and dynamic efficiency, young people prefer the political union (or Autarky) to the Economic Union. The reason is that in a political union or Autarky in the labor market is more regulated, or the salary is higher, 10 resulting in a rise in income permanent workers, their savings and capital stock of steady state . The chapter also includes presentation and discussion of the case asymmetrical. The second chapter presents new empirical evidence on the impact of the costs of dismissal on the flow of the labor market, using the variance generated by the change in the labor laws for Italian small and large companies in 1990. In addition, taking advantage of data sectors, is investigated whether the effect of the costs of firing ranges to vary the level of regulation of markets for goods. This chapter first, formalized this idea by using a model of "matching" that illustrates the effect of the interaction between regulating the entry of companies and costs of dismissal, and then presents new empirical evidence on the effect of market regulation labor and its interaction with the regulation of markets for goods. The empirical analysis operates a database of the Italian Social Security (INPS) linking employees and employers and allowing examine the effect of labor law reform italíana of 1990 on employment and labor flows in areas subject to different levels of regulation in the market for goods. The results of the chapter suggests that the reform of 1990 reduced permanent contracts, in particular for women. In addition, consistent with the predictions of theory, the results suggest that the reduction in the number of contracts per 8 manentes c68 for women was less relevant in areas subject to stricter regulation in the property market. The results also suggest that the reform reduced the dismissals of workers with permanent contracts and that the decline was most significant in regulated sectors. However, the net effect on employment seems to be nil. The results of this analysis implies that for a labor reform to be effective and generate new jobs, we must also eliminate regulations that create barriers to entrepreneurship. The third chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous agents that differ in the ability to create a empresa.Los individuals have to choose between being entrepreneurs or workers: the most skilful decide to be entrepreneurs and other workers. Companies have monopoly power and compete á la Coumo!. In this context it is well known that, iií there are two open economies and companies can price discriminate between countries, there are international trade in the form of reciprocal dumping. The consequent increase in the level of competition leads to higher quantities produced in the two countries and reduce corporate profits. This is the result of partial equilibrium. The presence of heterogeneous actors who can choose between being empresaJios or allows workers say more. In particular, the drop in profits caused by the rise in the minimum level of skill required to be an entrepreneur. As a result productivity also rises and GNP, which stimulates increased demand and a subsequent increase in production. The wages of workers rises due to increased demand for labor. So, in this context, trade is beneficial not only because it increases competition, but because it allows you to assign human resources more efficiently. In an open economy less gifted entrepreneurs are driven out of the productive sector. This model is consistent with the empirical literature, using data from businesses, said that the conduct of firms within the same sector can be very diverse. In particular, it is that companies that export are larger and more productive of which do not export. Moreover, the evidence suggests that companies that export are already more productive before export activity, or which does not appear to have evidence of learning-by-exporting. The theoretical literature on trade intemacional had so far been ineffective in providing an explanation of these facts, due to the use of models with homogeneous companies. Abandoning this course allows streamline the empirical evidence in the context of a very simple model.

Author: KULLBERG DE ALMEIDA RITA.
Year: 2004.
University: POMPEU FABRA.
Place of defense: DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMÍA Y EMPRESA.
Place of preparation: UNIVERSIDAD POMPEU FABRA.

Summary: The first chapter of the thesis is an analysis of how the economic structure, as measured by ratios of concentration, competitiveness and diversity affects the growth rate for the technology. Manufacturing in Portugal between 1985 and 1994. Most of the empirical literature on the subject assumes that in the long run, more productive regions will attract more workers and using the rate of employment growth as a measure of productivity growth. However, this methodology is based on the rate of wage growth is the same in all regions and that the workers are all equal. In this chapter, introduced the rate of growth of wages in the regions as a measure of productivity. The results are very different from those obtained with it havia rate of employment growth. The sectoral diversity has a negative effect on employment growth and a positive effect when productivity is measured with the growth rate of wages. This result suggests that it is very important to the analysis of other measures when seeking different sources of growth. In the second chapter of the thesis I make an analysis of the effect of foreign companies in the labor market in the domestic economy. In a "cross section" foreign firms are more educated workers and higher wages. Still, this result does not have to mean that foreign investors will increase demand for education or higher wages, because foreign investment can be intluenciada by factors that are not quantifiable for econometrista and are correlated with the demand for education or wages. Using data on all companies in Portugal, I seek the effect of foreign investment on the demand for education and wages watching these before and after a purchase by foreigners of a domestic company. The results for Portugal taught that foreigners make a selection of domestic companies that buy, how to buy companies that have more educated workers. But these are companies that are already very similar to foreign companies and that after the purchase, not recorded great changes in the educational level of its workforce. The average wage increase after purchase foreign but the differences are small but I found that the differences between foreign and domestic companies in the "cross section". In the third chapter of the thesis I make a comparison of methodologies for estimating the benefits of programs for "training" of workers in companies. Using the standard method in the literature that an estimated production found that an increase in the training of one hour for all workers increases the output at 0,001%. In this chapter I propose an alternative method to quantify the effects of training that has fewer problems econometric as the "reverse causality". This based on facto companies and train workers till the marginal cost of a unit training is equal to the marginal benefit. The total costs of training (or average costs) are a lower limit for the present value of future benefits of training, and the marginal costs are an accurate estimate of the marginal benefits. In data for Portugal found that the total cost of training (output that is not produced and direct costs) are approximately 1% of the value added. The estimates for Portugal to the internal rate of return on investment in training, with my estimate of the total costs and benefits with estimates of production functions, are very high (more than 300%). I interpret this result as evidence that the methodology used to estimate the production function is not appropriate to quantify the effect of training on the product.

Author: FERRERO GIUSEPPE.
Year: 2004.
University: POMPEU FABRA.
Place of defense: DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMÍA Y EMPRESA.
Place of preparation: DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMÍA Y EMPRESA.

Summary: The generic topic of the thesis is the study of dynamic models that departen the conventional assumption perfect markets and rational expectations. In the first chapter examines monetary policy in a model of learning. In this model output and inflation depend on the expectations of shocks to the economy and the interest rate determined by the central bank. In this economy agents learn about the best way to predict the future inflation and output. It shows that the speed of learning can be very slow, meaning that the economy would take a long time to learn to get the balance of rational expectations. In particular, if the central bank to continue economic policies that would result in a model of rational expectations, the economy could take much to get the balance, that these would be bad policy. More specifically, if one takes into account learning, the optimal policy of the central bank would have to react more to inflation and further increase the interest rate during periods of high inflation. The second chapter of the thesis addresses the problem of non-payment of debts. In particular, it examines the financial condition of insurance contracts and debt, taking into account the possibility of the occurrence of unpaid debt. Recently, work has begun to study models for division of the risk under the assumption that, if it suits them, the players can get out of contracts be excluded forever from the market. This assumption "permanent exclusion" has remained in the literature for technical reasons that simplify the calculation of the numerical balance. But it is clear that this is an unrealistic assumption. Therefore, the second chapter of the thesis examines a model where the agent does not meet the contract is excluded only temporarily market debt. After this period without access to loans, the agent can re-enter the market as any other. The chapter shows how to solve technical problems in the formulation of the model and shows that, once properly developed, this model has some computational costs almost the same as in the case of traditional permanent exclusion.

Author: HERNÁNDEZ NÚÑEZ RAFAEL JESÚS.
Year: 2005.
University: CASTILLA-LA MANCHA.
Place of defense: CIENCIAS JURÍDICAS Y SOCIALES.
Place of preparation: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS JURÍDICAS Y SOCIALES DE TOLEDO.

Summary: This thesis, based on the criticism of the ideas emerged in the discussions held between the theoretical economic thinkers most important issues of our time about the effect of a deficit requiring continued access to private markets credit on the financing of private enterprises , aims to advance the development of a Role in Consumer Spending more realistic and better teorizada that exist at present. It seeks to create a body of doctrine of common acceptance among scholars in this field that allows focus the discussion on the real effects of Public Deficit and not in the type of role model or consumer spending chosen to analyze such an effect. One function of consumption expenditure duly matematizada as this thesis show, aims to facilitate the inclusion of micro developments within and to support macroeconomic models more sophisticated. In this thesis is the first formulation of a mathematical model that uses budget cuts and indifference curves utility in its construction. The concept and the economic use of curves indifference utility are developed in depth.

Author: Dmitriev Alexandre.
Year: 2006.
University: AUTÓNOMA DE BARCELONA.
Place of defense: Departament d´Economia i d´Història Econòmica.
Place of preparation: Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona.

Summary: This doctoral thesis consists of three self-contained essays in Macroeconomics and Economic Growth. Essay 1. "Technological Transfers, Limited Commitment and Growth"Evidence shows that there are substantial rich-to-poor international capital flows although not as abundant as differences in rates of return would suggest. These flows are procylcical: abundant in good times and scarce in bad times. They have been reported to promote growth and stability in some countries, but merely to augment instability in the others. Conventional growth models face certain difficulties in accounting for this pattern. In this paper, we propose a dynamic model of capital flows to developing countries which is qualitatively consistent with these empirical regularities. The model is based on three main premises: i) international lending contracts are imperfectly enforceable; ii) access to the international financial markets results in technological transfers to a developing country from the rest of the world; iii) some of the productivity gains associated with the access to external financing are perishable. We solve for transitional dynamics of the model economy with endogenously incomplete markets and compare the results with the solutions obtained from the perfect risk-sharing and autarkic environments. In addition, we examine the implications of alternative assumptions about the severity of the repudiation punishment for growth, welfare and borrowing patterns. Our findings suggest that technological transfers may play a role of an important enforcement mechanism. In our framework, existence of substantial rich-to-poor capital flows is not inconsistent with the presence of default risk. Essay 2. "A Note on Computing Partial Derivatives of the Value Function by Simulation"The problems involving incentive compatibility constraints in the form of dynamic participation constrains have received wide attention in the literature due to the recent advances in dynamic optimization techniques. Often the optimality conditions for this class of problems involve partial derivatives of the value function with respect to some of the endogenous state variables. In this paper we suggest an algorithm for computing these partial derivatives by simulation. The attractive features of the algorithm include its rather wide scope of applicability and simplicity of implementation. Furthermore, the suggested method does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality and therefore it is particularly convenient for the models involving many state variables. (JEL C63) Essay 3. "Institutions and Growth: Some Evidence from Estimation Methods Partially Robust to Weak Instruments"This paper focuses on the empirical approach proposed by Hall and Jones (1999) to estimate the effect of what they call "social infrastructure" on productivity across countries. We attempt to address the criticism of Acemoglu et al (2001) directed towards this methodology for relying on the geographical instruments. To do so we consider the issue of weak identification in the linear instrumental variables model of Hall and Jones (1999). The evidence obtained from the partially robust estimators like the k-class and jackknife estimators is interpreted on the basis of the Monte Carlo studies. Our findings suggest that using some of the k-class estimators allows exclusive reliance on the linguistic variables to instrument for institutional quality despite their low correlation with the endogenous regressor in question. (JEL C15, O40)