DECISION THEORY AND PROCESSES

Author: PALOMO MARTÍNEZ JESÚS.
Year: 2003.
University: REY JUAN CARLOS [www.urjc.es].
Place of defense: CIENCIAS EXPERIMENTALES Y TECNOLOGÍA.
Place of preparation: ESCUELA SUPERIOR DE CIENCIAS EXPERIMENTALES Y TECNOLOGÍA.

Summary: This thesis proposes a comprehensive framework that covers the entire process of formulating bids in auctions for obtaining contracts. It uses a Bayesian approach to modeling uncertainties in the process. For a given auction, the proposed framework modeling sequentially different types of uncertainty. It begins with the estimation of the predictive distribution of project cost through dynamic models. Subsequently, the estimated probability that appear successors anómolos and its impacts during project implementation. Finally, made a bidding strategy that maximizes the value of the expected bidder at an auction price of the first type of sealed asymmetric. In this sequential process, the views of experts may be considered to obtain predictions more informative. Once the actual data are known, estimated distributions post to incorporate knowledge into future proposals.

Author: DÍAZ VÁZQUEZ SUSANA.
Year: 2004.
University: OVIEDO [www.uniovi.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS.
Place of preparation: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS.

Summary: This thesis has conducted a study of the spread of the transitivity within the structures of preference additive, since it a fundamental concept in the theory of multi decision. In the classical case it is known that the transitivity of the relationship preferably associated with a widespread preference structure can be characterized by the transitividades in the terms of preference and strict terms of indifference. We have introduced a definition of transitivity that generalizes the customarily used in the literature and have sought stronger types of transitivity that can be secured for relations preferably strict and indifference assuming that the relationship extended preferably satisfies different types of transitivity. We have also proven that our results provide truly types strongest possible transitivity. Since the influence of the assumptions of completeness is clear already in the classical case, we have also studied the influence of this property in the decomposition of the transitivity environment diffuse. We have studied the implications strongest possible in the absence of completeness as low completeness weak. Moreover, we have shown that the transitivity of the relationship widespread preference does not show even stronger types of transitivity which may pose to the relationship preferably strict and indifference, so that the characterization known in the classical case does not support a direct translation to the case blur.

Author: Meneses Poncio Luis Carlos.
Year: 2004.
University: VALLADOLID [www.uva.es].
Place of defense: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
Place of preparation: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.

Summary: The main aim of the thesis is to contrast some empirical assumption that consistency is generally considered in the theory of the decision, both from the point of view of the individual, and the collective obtained from different rules of aggregation, when individuals show intensities their preferences. To do this, first deals with the representation of preferences according to the classical approaches, diffuse and lingüstico of Decision Theory, as well as some models of rationality associated with each of them. Secondly, we study, from an empirical perspective, different models of rationality diffuse, analyzing various aspects which may influence the level of consistency achieved by individuals. These models are fuzzy rationality related to compliance with various properties of transitivity diffuse. Thereafter, he examines the relationship between individual and collective coherence obtained from various aggregation rules that are good properties. Various inputs in the existing literature (Paradox Condorcet, impossibility theorem Arrow ,...) noted the impossibility of securing a collective decision consistent from individual preferences sound if it wishes to verify certain ethical principles or democratic. However, the empirical study done shows that leaving freedom to individuals, and therefore, they may be rational or not, are obtained high levels of collective rationality. The last part of the memory develops two variants lingüsticas the aggregation rule Borda, establishing conditions for the results obtained with this rule are representative of the preferences of individuals. Besides analyzing the relationship between this rule and the principle of Condorcet, whereby if an alternative is preferred to any other in peer comparisons, it should be the option chosen. Subsequently, is a contrast empirical all these concepts are analyzed various properties of transitivity lingüstica, there is the high representation of accountants Borda obtained and there is a high concordance between the results obtained with the two aggregates variants lingüsticas considered, besides as with those obtained by applying the principle of Condorcet.

Author: RÍOS ALIAGA JESÚS MARIA.
Year: 2005.
University: REY JUAN CARLOS [www.urjc.es].
Place of defense: ESCUELA SUPERIOR DE CIENCIAS EXPERIMENTALES Y TECNOLOGÍAS.
Place of preparation: ESCUELA SUPERIOR DE CC. EXPERIMENTALES Y TECNOLOGÍAS.

Summary: This thesis develops ideas from the analysis of decisions and negotiations with a view to be applied in resolving problems of public decision-making, contributing to the development of electronic democracy. The axiomatic theory of bargaining is reviewed as a tool to build equitable recommendations in a possible negotiation on an issue of social decision. Motivated by solving Raiffa increases balanced, we present a solution based on concessions balanced. New concepts introduced solution to problems of bargaining in which the conjutno of feasible alternatives in the area of utility is not convex, with a special emphasis on the finite case. It proposes mediation schemes based on the concepts of solution intraducios with the objective of conducting negotiations with multiple participants. In the case of generic problems making decisions for structured group through decision trees or influence diagram, which shows negotiated in each node decision could lead to a solution dominated, even in the event that all agreements reached at nodes decision not to be dominated. We present algorithms to calculate the entire set of strategies not dominated on these structures and a method for conducting negotiations on the package. As application area consider the case of participatory budgets. This thesis describes models and methods to support the development of a participatory budget. The problem of participatory budgeting is formulated as a problem of allocating limited resource in which citizens can seek to maximize the satisfaction of the panel at the hearing on multiple criteria. Based on a negotiated approach, proposing a general methodology to assist groups in developing a participatory budgeting. Also present PARBUD, an Internet-based implementation of this methodology.

Author: PASTOR FERRANDO JUAN PASCUAL.
Year: 2006.
University: POLITÉCNICA DE VALENCIA [www.upv.es].
Place of defense: Universidad Politécnica de Valencia.
Place of preparation: Universidad Politécnica de Valencia.

Summary: In this dissertation addresses the problem of selecting and balancing the criteria used in a public tender. More specifically, in a contest by awarding a contract for construction. In this case, attempts to solve this problem by using the AHP and PNA multicriteria decision. The overall aim of the thesis is: "To deepen the knowledge and use of the AHP and the PNA in the field of Procurement '. To achieve this goal: Â § Make a revision of the legal framework on public procurement. This review includes Spanish law, the reports of the Consultative Board Recruitment, Directives and the European Court of Justice of the European Communities. Â § Analyzes 73 sheets of real bidding. Â § Check the literature to identify criteria for the selection of contractors in construction projects. Â § proposes a list of 94 criteria. Â § Build two models: one in a hierarchical network. Â § identifies a problem when using large network models with ANP. It is also proposed a solution. Â § proposes an alternative method PNA to avoid renormalización of supermatriz weighted. Â § propose two simplified models of 21 criteria, which are applied to two case histories. Â § analyze and compare the results obtained with both techniques, as well as with alternative proposals.

Author: VAZQUE MARTINEZ IÑAKI.
Year: 2006.
University: ZARAGOZA [www.unizar.es].
Place of defense: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES.
Place of preparation: FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES.

Summary: Over recent decades, patterns of family construction in most European countries are being altered in favor of families characterized, among other things, delayed by a stay of the adult children in the parental home. In these circumstances, it is necessary to address in detail and depth study of this type family, increasingly common, with the tools that the latest developments of microeconomic analysis gives us. Our overall objective over this dissertation will be the analysis of the decisions made within these families. Specifically, look, first of all determinants of the decision of young adults regard to independence or not of the nuclear family, then, we will look at the distribution of resources within the family in a collaborative model, and thirdly, we will analyze the stability note of the decisions family consensus that lead to a cooperative behavior collectively. Therefore, this dissertation we intend to model and analyze some decision-making family, as well as stability in the family cooperation, which are in families in which the adult child has not yet left the "nest". To that end, we will use the methodology of collective models of behavior family, in which, taking into account the individuality of the preferences of the members of that unit, they are made compatible for obtaining a common resolve to market through a process negotiating implicit or explicit. The importance of knowledge of the mechanisms of allocation and decision intrafamiliares clearly if we take into account that economic policies designed and implemented by governments currently do not generally take into account the effects family, and therefore it is not known the real extent its effective implementation. The first chapter discusses terms descriptive, static and dynamic impact that various socio-demographic and economic factors have on the decision of Spanish young adults leaving the family home. In other words, approximates the socio-economic causes that make young adult Spanish decides "to fly from the nest." We will see what factors influenced the decision, including those who raise most controversy, such as personal income, household income and housing prices, as well as other series of personal characteristics, family and environment. In the latter chapters modelizamos a family consisting of three officers makers in the context of collective models of behavior family after finding the absence of any model to consider more than two agents makers, in addition to Dauphin and Lacroix (2001 ) and Dauphin et al. (2004). Then we applied to the case with Spanish Household Panel data of the European Union, noting in this way the effect that the presence of the adult child has on the allocation of resources within the family made after a process of negotiation within this type of homes. In the last chapters of what we dealt with the analysis of the stability of cooperation in the conduct of three individuals belonging to a single family unit and involved in various processes of resource allocation. The special characteristics of our third agent can make us consider the possibility that the basic assumption of the models collective efficiency resulting from the cooperation, is not met. Therefore, we believe interesting attempt a theoretical analysis to tell us how changing the probability of breaking cooperation depend on three factors internal to the family: the valuation of the source of cooperation, the bargaining power and the possibility of altruistic behavior.