Special elections United States 2020

Trump and Biden face off at the polls to reach the presidency of the United States. Atypical elections, conditioned by the pandemic, and transcendental for the recovery of the world economy.

A few hours after knowing the result of the elections in the United States, the planet is debating whether, finally, it will be Biden, the Democratic candidate, or Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, the new president of the United States. A few hours before the electoral appointment, the Democratic candidate, Biden, hoped to win a broad victory at the polls, after what happened with the pandemic. The polls favored the Democrats and the predictions that Wall Street left us tipped the balance in their favor.

However, Trump’s last-minute victory in the hinge states, where he has not been able to revalidate only the state of Arizona, rebalances the balance and returns it to the center, snatching that hope from the Democratic candidate. And it is that a mistake similar to the one that could be committed today, was the one that led the Democratic party to trust, precipitously, in the victory of Hillary Clinton during the 2016 elections. An electoral appointment that hoped to settle with the victory of Democrat Clinton, but that, in a scenario similar to the current one, was finally taken away by the Republican party, placing Trump with the winner of the last elections.

For this reason, candidate Biden knows that, despite what the polls say, it is not convenient to celebrate the victory until it is made official. Well, even taking into account Wall Street, the downtrend in the trading day that predicted Trump’s departure from the White House and Biden’s victory, has at the last minute been reversed. Thus, if we look at the markets and what they are showing at the moment, we can see how the trend once again trusts a Trump victory, and not, as before, the Democratic candidate’s victory.

And is that before the pandemic, the elections were less disputed. The good performance of the economy, taking into account that we were talking about a labor market with full employment, a galloping economy that registered its greatest expansion in years of history, as well as another series of factors that showed the economic robustness of the country, facilitated the new Trump’s rise and stay in the White House. However, in an election punctuated by COVID and the disastrous management undertaken, the balance, as happened with Trump’s victory in the hinge states, returned to the center; waiting for the response that Biden could offer to combat the situation.

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An election marked by the pandemic

For Biden, the pandemic has been, and although it sounds bad to say so, the best event for his political career. If we look at the cards with which Biden plays, the mismanagement of the pandemic, the lack of response by the United States, as well as the deterioration derived from the pandemic in the economy, have been the throwing weapons of a confident Biden in winning the victory in these elections. This, added to another series of situations in which racial tension turned the country upside down, left a very comfortable scenario for Biden; taking into account what he was previously facing, as well as the previous scenario that made his ascent to the White House difficult.

And, although the elections expected to end with a very close Trump victory, the pandemic has been a fundamental factor in the political reorientation that the North American country hopes to experience. Before the COVID wave was unleashed throughout the North American territory, the country, despite internal vulnerabilities, presented a macroeconomic picture that offered a broad victory to the Republican candidate. With a country that had a situation of full employment in its labor market, with the economy growing at rates like never before and registering the greatest economic expansion in years, and all this, putting pressure on the Asian economies for the dominance of global trade , as he had previously promised, they left a perfect setting to revalidate a presidency that, valued from an economic point of view, offered prosperity and development.

The good economic situation relaxed the tycoon, who was confident of a comfortable victory in the eyes of the indicators. However, the pandemic, as well as those racial tensions that were experienced in the country, added to another series of altercations and the disastrous management of the pandemic, have turned the tables, as he would say, in favor of Biden. One example of this was Trump’s desire to postpone the elections until the pandemic was under control and the new normal was a fact. However, Biden, with his gaze fixed on the North American economy, knew that the moment to remove Trump from the White House was now, and not when the economy, according to the forecasts shown by the organizations, begins to rise and show Again, positive data at the beginning of the next year.

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A momentous election

In recent years, as in almost all settings, American supremacy in the global order has placed the American economy, as well as its political leaders, at the global epicenter. Decisions taken by the United States throughout history have been, at best, the benchmark for all countries. From the Ebola crisis to the financial debacle of 2007, the United States has always been the power that has been there to “save the world” from the excesses that led us to not so positive situations.

Like a father to a son, the North American country has always been in charge of leading a global response to control and alleviate the situation. Its great strategists, its response capacity, as well as its power, influenced the rest of the leaders at a global level, shaping that world order that placed them on the top of the iceberg. A disputed peak, but in which the US leadership kept its position with no options to rival it with other countries.

However, today, the situation seems to have changed. Right at a time when society is facing one of the greatest crises in history. At a time when a pandemic outbreak has ended stability on the planet, the United States has gone largely unnoticed. We have seen Donald Trump try to control the situation, however, the situation in the country was so drastic that his intention to control has been diminished by his inability to contain the virus within its borders.

For this reason, the elections held in the United States are not just another election. Rather, based on what has been commented, we are talking about an election in which the new leading voice in this world order is decided, which provides hope, vision and leadership to a planet disoriented by the incidence of the virus. A vision that Trump could contribute, but that he did not contribute due to the inability to contain the virus in the previous months. The turn now is for Biden, who hopes to provide light in a tunnel in which countries act blindly and waiting for that focus to guide them.

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And, like the pandemic, many issues are at stake. The economic agenda, no matter how altered it has been due to COVID, does not forget other issues that, in the same way, are presented in said agenda as challenges to be addressed in the coming years. Challenges that, as in the case of COVID, must be addressed to recover that well-being that the population enjoyed before the pandemic. Well, since the trade war with China, the dispute over global trade, Brexit, the T-MEC, as well as other series of events, we talk about challenges that depend on the United States and, based on the president who is elected, they will set the course for the world economy for years to come.

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